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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|